:Product: 20041007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. 
Region 678 (N12W75) showed slight growth in spot area today and
produced a minor B-class flare.  Disk and limb activity was sparse
throughout the period.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 094
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01