:Product: 20041008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 680 (N14W83)
was newly numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.  There's a small
chance for isolated periods of active levels beginning on 11 Oct due
to the influence of a recurrent high-speed solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 091
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct  095/095/090
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  005/007-005/007-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05