:Product: 20041009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  A string of minor
B-class activity has occurred over the last 24 hours emanating from
Region 680 (N15W90).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 12 Oct. 
Beginning on 11 Oct, there is a slight chance for isolated active
levels due to the effects of a recurrent high-speed solar wind
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 088
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct  090/085/085
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  005/007-010/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10