:Product: 20041010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.  There are no numbered active regions currently on the
visible disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 11 Oct through 13
Oct.  There's an increasing chance for periods of active levels from
12 Oct through 13 Oct due to the effects of a recurrent high-speed
solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 089
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  085/080/080
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  010/012-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10