:Product: 20041011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  There are no
numbered regions on the active disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled, with one period 
of isolated active conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active conditions
possible all three days from the effects of a recurrent high speed
solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 087
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  012/015-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/15