:Product: 20041012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  New Region 681
(N12W09) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
conditions on 13-14 October from the effects of recurrent high-speed
solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 088
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  015/015-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05