:Product: 20041013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  New Region 682
(S13E64) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 682 may produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. 
Minor geomagnetic storms early in the period may have been caused by
periods of consistently southward Bz followed by northward turning. 
Real-time solar wind data recorded at ACE are suggestive of the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region at about 0100 UTC, and
steady increase in solar wind speed starting at about 0800 UTC,
indicating the beginning of high speed solar wind stream from a
geoeffective coronal hole.  Solar wind speed at the end of the
period was at 500 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 14 October from the residual
effects of coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.  On 15-16
October, geomagnetic activity should subside to quiet to unsettled
levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 087
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  030/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  015/020-012/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           35/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05