:Product: 20041014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 682 (S13E50)
produced a C1.0 at 13/2206Z and a C1.7 at 14/0329Z.  Region 682 grew
to 245 millionths in white light, and maintained a beta magnetic
configuration.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 682 may produce C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  Solar
wind speed at ACE continued a steady increase and ended the period
at 540 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 15 October, from the residual
effects of the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.  Activity
should subside to quiet to unsettled levels on 16-17 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 091
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  017/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  012/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05