:Product: 20041015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 682 (S14E37), the
only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced several B-class
flares. This region showed little change over the past 24 hours. It
currently exhibits minor magnetic complexity with approximately 250
millionths of white light area coverage. No other significant
activity or changes were noted.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 682 has potential for isolated C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed began
the period near 540 km/s, but gradually declined to 450 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 18 Oct due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 089
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  090/085/085
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  012/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  005/010-008/010-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05