:Product: 20041016RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Oct 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares were observed from Region 682 (S14E24). No significant changes were observed in this region, which continues to exhibit some minor magnetic complexity. B-class flares were also observed from an active region rotating into view on the east limb near S04. No other activity or changes were noted. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 682 may produce isolated C-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with an isolated unsettled period between 16/0000 - 0300Z. Very stable solar wind conditions existed through the latter half of the period with solar wind speed near 350 km/s and the IMF Bz near zero. The greater than 2 Mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit has been at high levels since midday on 14 October. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 18 and 19 October due to a weak high speed solar wind stream. III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Oct 092 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 108 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 008/008-008/012-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/25/30 Minor storm 05/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/05