:Product: 20041017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity continued at very low levels with
occasional B-class flares. Region 682 (S14E10) has shown some decay
in white light area coverage, but still maintains minor magnetic
complexity. New Region 683 (S09E22) emerged as a C type group early
in the period. New Region 684 (S04E65) was also numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated minor C-class flares are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Very stable solar wind conditions
persisted through the period. Solar wind speed declined to near 300
km/s and IMF Bz remains near zero. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high, and has been at high levels
since 14 October.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 19 October due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 092
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  095/090/090
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  008/010-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05