:Product: 20041018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Minor B-class activity was
observed during the latter half of the period. A CME erupted from
the northeast limb at approximately 17/2030Z. SXI imagery indicates
a new active region rotating near N07 on the east limb. Region 682
(S13W03) has shown slight decay in both area coverage and magnetic
complexity. Region 683 (S10E08) is a D type group in very slow
growth. New regions 685 (S05E26) and 686 (S20E43) were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Regions 682
and 683. A new region rotating near N07 on the east limb may
increase solar activity levels in the coming days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled levels
late in the period. Solar wind speed remains below 350 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high,
and have been high since 14 October.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 19 and 20 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 096
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  100/105/110
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  010/010-010/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01