:Product: 20041019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 682 (S13W20) has
been upgraded to a Beta-Gamma magnetic classification in the last 24
hours, and has produced two C-class flare events.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low through 22 Oct.  Region 682 is expected to continue to pose a
good threat to produce more C-class flare activity, with a chance of
producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels through 22 Oct.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    15/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 105
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct  100/105/110
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01