:Product: 20041021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels today.  Region 687
(N10E52) produced multiple C-class flares during the period, the
largest was a C9.9 x-ray flare that occurred at 21/1948Z.  At
21/0040Z this region produced a C7/Sf flare with an associated CME
that was observed in LASCO.  The CME does not appear to be
Earth-directed.  Close scrutiny of available data indicates that the
penumbral area of Region 687 is a single polarity structure yielding
a CSO beta-gamma sunspot classification.  Region 682 (S13W46)
produced two C-class flares during the period, a C1/Sf that occurred
at 21/1442Z and a C4/Sf event occurring at 21/1522Z.  Although the
overall sunspot count went down the sunspot distribution of
intermediate spots matured during the period which accounts for the
compact classification.  Region 689 (N12E74) seen on the solar east
limb was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 682 and 687 are both capable of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 112
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  115/120/115
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01