:Product: 20041022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. 
Region 687 (N10E39) produced an M2/1n flare at 22/0811Z that had an
associated Type IV radio sweep and a Type II radio sweep with an
estimated shock velocity 521 km/sec.  LASCO imagery depicted a CME
shortly following this event which may have a weak Earth-bound
component.  The sunspot area in this region underwent strong growth
during the period, adding penumbral coverage to the trailing cluster
of spots in the group.  Region 682 (S13W59) underwent little change
today and produced a single low level B-class flare.  Region 684
(S05E01) has shown rapid growth in sunspot area and magnetic
structure during the period.  Region 690 (N00E78) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 687 is capable of producing further
M-class flares and has a slight chance of producing an isolated
major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 23 and 24 October.  A
chance of isolated active conditions may occur on 25 October due to
the potential for a glancing blow from the CME that resulted from
the M2/1n flare mentioned in IA.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 123
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  125/130/125
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  004/005-005/005-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05