:Product: 20041023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C9.9 flare occurred at
23/1654 UTC from Region 687 (N11E28).  Region 687 also produced a
C8.0 flare at 23/1922 UTC.  Region 682 (S13W73) produced a low level
C flare.  New Region 691 (N16E69) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 687 may produce isolated M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 132
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  005/005-010/012-010/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05