:Product: 20041024RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  A M2.3 flare occurred at
24/2028 UTC from Region 687 (N12E15).  Regions 682 (S12W86) and 691
(N15E59) have produced low level C-class flares.  Region 682 has
rotated off the West limb.  New Region 692 (S17E30) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar Activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  M-class flares are possible from Region 687.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed
increased from approximately 360 km/s to 500 km/s, most likely due
to a geoeffective coronal hole.   A prolonged period of the
southward Bz component was responsible for the unsettled conditions
experienced.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a possibility for isolated
active periods on 25 and 26 October due to a possible glancing blow
from a CME observed on 22 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Oct 135
Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        24 Oct 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  010/012-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05