:Product: 20041025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C6.8 flare was observed from
Region 687 (N12E03) at 25/1031 UTC.  Region 687 also produced
several other low level C-class flares.  Region 691 (N15E48)
produced a C4.2 at 25/0252 UTC and maintains a Beta-Gamma-Delta
magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Isolated M-class flares from Region 687 are expected.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an active period on
25 October between 0900 and 1200 UTC.  The active period was most
likely due to a geoeffective coronal hole.  ACE data show solar wind
speed has remained around 500 km/s, however the total interplanetary
magnetic field strength has decreased from approximately 10 nT to 4
nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
conditions on 26 October.  On 27 and 28 October, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 140
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct  140/135/135
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  010/012-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05