:Product: 20041026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 687 (N12W11)  produced
a C2.2 flare at 26/1506 UTC.  This Region exhibited some decay in
both white light area coverage and magnetic complexity.  Region 691
(N15E32), still shows a beta-gamma-delta configuration and produced
a C1.3 flare at 26/1839 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 687 and 691 have potential for M-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed at ACE declined
from approximately 470 km/s to 420 km/s during the reporting period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Oct 137
Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct  135/135/130
90 Day Mean        26 Oct 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  005/005-005/005-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05