:Product: 20041028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 693 (S14E61) had the
majority of the small flares that occurred during the period. Its
largest event was a C3 at 0316 UTC. The region appears to consist of
a mature spot group with a moderate degree of magnetic complexity.
Region 687 (N12W37), the active center of the past few days, was
mostly quiet and stable. New Region 694 (N16E22) emerged on the
disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at the low level.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 133
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct  135/135/130
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  005/008-010/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05