:Product: 20041029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. As it has the past few days,
Region 693 (S14E46) produced numerous impulsive C-class flares. The
region continues to exhibit bright plage and maintains a degree of
magnetic complexity. Elsewhere, little else of significance
occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 693 should produce additional C-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An enhancement in the
southward component of the IMF brought brief intervals of unsettled
to active conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled conditions for the next 72
hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 129
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov  130/125/125
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05