:Product: 20041102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of a
few C-class events. The largest of these were a C6 at 0143 UTC from
Region 687 (N12W90+) and a C9 at 0947 UTC from Region 689 (N10W81).
Region 693 (S14W05) continues to be the largest group on the disk
but is magnetically simple and could only produce a low-level
C-flare. Region 696 (N08E47) is growing and also produced a
low-level C-flare.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a chance for isolated M-class events from
Region 691 or from Region 693.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind data do not
indicate the arrival of a shock or transient flow from the activity
of 30 October. There does appear to be a sector boundary crossing at
about 1800 UTC. Greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes stayed below event
level (10 PFU) but were elevated relative to normal background
levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for some isolated active
periods during the next three days (03-05 November). Today's sector
boundary change is likely to be a prelude to a negative polarity
coronal hole stream which should result in an increase in
geomagnetic activity.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 133
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov  130/125/125
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  012/015-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05