:Product: 20041103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was high during the last 24 hours due to
an M5/Sn flare from Region 696 (N09E32) at 1547 UTC. The flare was
accompanied by type II and type IV radio sweeps, strong radio
bursts, and an asymmetric halo CME with plane-of-sky velocity of
about 900 km/s. The majority of the CME mass was observed over the
northeast limb. Region 696 produced additional M-flares including an
M1/1n at 0335 UTC (accompanied by type II and type IV sweeps and a
bright, partial halo CME off the northeast limb), and an M1/Sf at
1826 UTC. The region has more than doubled in size, and of
particular note is the emergence of positive polarity magnetic flux
just ahead of the strong, negative polarity leader spots. The
magnetic inversion between these parts of the group is driving the
increased flare production and is close to becoming a magnetic delta
configuration. Region 691 (N13W81) started producing flares again
after a quiet day yesterday, including an M2/1f at 0133 UTC which
was accompanied by a type II sweep. Region 693 (S15W18) continues to
be the largest group on the disk but only managed to produce a C2/Sf
at 0931 UTC. There is some negative polarity flux emerging in the
positive polarity trailer which could trigger more frequent flare
activity out of this region.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, but there is a fair chance for an isolated major flare
event over the next three days from Region 696, Region 691, or
Region 693.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past
24 hours. There was one active period from 0900-1200 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with possible active periods for the
next two days (04-05 November) due to coronal hole effects. The CME
associated with today's M5 flare is expected to arrive on the third
day (06 November) and is expected to increase activity to mostly
active levels with occasional periods of minor storm levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    65/65/55
Class X    20/20/15
Proton     20/20/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 136
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  135/130/130
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  012/015-012/015-025/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/35
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/35
Major-severe storm    10/10/25