:Product: 20041105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to high levels today.  Region
696 (N09E06) produced the largest flare of the period, an M5 major
flare at 04/2309Z that had an associated Tenflare (1800 sfu's), Type
IV spectral radio sweep, and a Type II sweep with an estimated shock
velocity of 1053 km/sec.  An M2/1n event occurred at 04/2229Z.  The
combination of these two flares resulted in a complex partial halo
CME that should become geoeffective.  Region 696 also produced an
M4/1f at 05/1130Z that had an associated Tenflare and a Type IV
spectral radio sweep and an M1/Sf that occurred at 05/1922Z.  This
region continues to grow in sunspot area and magnetic complexity
while the delta magnetic structure remains well intact.  Region 693
(S15W44) has shown steady decay today as the sunspot penumbral
converge has lessened and the magnetic delta structure is no longer
evident.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.  Several M-class flares with an isolated
major flare are possible from Region 696.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels.  The anticipated
shock from the full halo CME related to M5/Sn that occurred on 03
November at 1547Z and is expected to arrive on 06 November.  A
weaker shock is expected late on the sixth, early on 07 November as
a result of the long duration C6/Sf event from 04 November that
occurred at 0905Z indicated by the resulting partial halo CME.  A
third shock passage is expected late on the seventh, early on 08
November due to the resulting partial halo CME that occurred today
in response to the combination of the M2 and M5 x-ray events of
today.  Due to the magnetic complexity and frequency of M-class
flares from Region 696 there exists a chance for the greater than 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit to exceed threshold in
response to further major flare activity.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 141
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  025/030-020/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           35/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor storm           40/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/15