:Product: 20041106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at high levels today.  Region
696 (N09W08) produced an M9/2n major flare at 06/0034Z.  This flare
had an associated Tenflare of 2700 sfu's, a Type IV spectral radio
sweep, a Type II spectral radio sweep with an estimated shock
velocity of 523 km/sec, strong discrete frequency radio bursts, and
a partial halo CME seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery.  A impulsive M1 x-ray
event occurred later in the period at 06/1953Z.  This region
continues to show growth in penumbral coverage and magnetic
complexity.  Region 693 (S15W57) continues to decay and exhibits a
simple north-south magnetic inversion line.  Regions 697 (N05W52)
and 698 (S10W42) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels for the next three days due to the
complexity of Region 696.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels.  The ACE spacecraft
indicates that there should be a shock passage early on 07 November
allowing for minor to major storm conditions due to the full halo
CME resulting from the M5 event on 03 November.  A weaker shock may
also arrive later on 07 November due to the long duration C6/Sf
event that resulted in a partial halo CME that occurred on 04
November at 0905Z.  Another potential shock passage is expected on
08 November resulting from the combination of the M2 and M5 x-ray
events and associated partial halo CME that occurred yesterday could
produce periods of minor storming.  The M9/2n event that produced
yet another partial halo CME that occurred today should arrive Earth
on 09 November in tandem with the onset of a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream which may result in periods of minor to major
storm conditions.  A slight chance of a greater than 10 MeV proton
flux event in association with a major flare from Region 696 remains
worthy of note.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 129
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov  125/125/120
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  001/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  025/030-020/020-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           35/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/45/30
Minor storm           40/25/40
Major-severe storm    20/15/20