:Product: 20041107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 696 (N08W22)
produced numerous C-class flares, and at 1606 UTC a long duration
X2.0 flare, accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (673 km/s), a Type
IV radio sweep, and a 4600 sfu Tenflare.  A CME may have occurred in
association with this flare, although LASCO imagery was not
available.  Region 696 decayed significantly to an area of 650
millionths in white light.  The region maintains its complex
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Although it has decayed in size, Region 696 is
expected to produce M-class and isolated X-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels.  A
shock arrived at ACE at 1555 UTC which caused subsequent major
storming in Earth's magnetic field beginning at 1608 UTC.  Another
shock passage was observed at ACE at 1755 UTC that resulted in a
41nT sudden impulse at 1831 UTC followed by minor storming.  These
shock passages are most likely from the CMEs associated with flare
activity on 3 and 4 November.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
crossed 10 pfu at 1910 UTC and ended the period at 72 pfu.  The
greater than 100 MeV proton flux was elevated but did not cross the
1 pfu threshold.  Energetic proton activity was most likely
associated with the X2 flare.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels.  A shock passage
from the CME associated with the M2/M5 flares from 5 November is
expected to arrive early on 8 November, and a shock passage from the
CME associated with the M9 flare from 6 November is expected to
arrive on 9 November.  Today's X2 flare very likely produced a CME
that could arrive late on 9 November.  These anticipated shock
passages, along with the elevation in solar wind speed due to a
geoeffective coronal hole, should keep geomagnetic activity at
unsettled to minor storm levels all three days, with isolated major
storming possible on 8-9 November.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux at GOES is expected to stay above the 10 pfu threshold through
8 November, and will likely cross the 100 pfu threshold early on 8
November.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 130
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  125/125/120
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  022/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  020/030-025/030-025/040
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           40/40/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/20