:Product: 20041108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  An M2.3/1N flare occurred
from Region 696 (N08W36) at 08/1549 UTC.  Region 696 was also
responsible for several C-flares and maintains a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.  The region decayed slightly to 600
millionths in white light.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with the possibility of M-class and isolated  X-flares from
Region 696.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storming levels. 
Nine hours of severe storm conditions during the period were the
result of almost six hours of Bz at -40 nT from 07/2230 UTC to
08/0420 UTC.  This very significant geomagnetic activity was likely
due to a shock arrival associated with a CME from the M9 flare that
occurred on 06 November.  The greater than 10 MeV protons began the
period above thresholds, reached a maximum value of 495 pfu at
08/0115 UTC, and ended the period at 60 pfu.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The Geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on 09 November due
to the arrival of a CME associated with the X2.0 flare observed on
07 November.  Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on 10
November.  Quiet to active levels are expected on 11 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    75/75/70
Class X    20/20/15
Proton     20/20/15
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 124
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov  125/120/115
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  022/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  130/190
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  040/040-025/030-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           35/30/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/10