:Product: 20041109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  Region 696 (N08W50) produced
several C-class flares and at 09/1719 UTC the region produced an
M8.9/2n Tenflare (1000 sfu), accompanied by Type II (1866 km/s) and
Type IV radio sweeps.  A 23-degree fragmented filament erupted south
of the active region at the same time as the flare.  The M8 flare
was also accompanied by a very fast asymmetric full halo CME on
LASCO imagery with a plane-of-sky speed of near 1800 km/s.  Region
696 maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  Region
698 (S09W84) produced several C-class flares during the period. 
Region 699 (S16E66) was numbered today.  The 10 cm flux value
observed today was flare enhanced.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 696 is expected to produce M-class flares,
and X-class flares are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm
conditions.  The period began with active to major storm levels with
solar wind speed elevated to 600 km/s.  A 34 nT sudden impulse was
observed at 09/0931 UTC, which was followed by major to severe
storming and an increase of solar wind speed from 600 to 800 km/s. 
Another sudden impulse (46 nT) was observed at 1852 UTC and was
followed by severe storm conditions to the end of the period.  The
GOES 10 and 12 spacecraft observed magnetopause crossings following
the second sudden impulse.  Solar wind speed increased from 650 to
800 km/s and Bz turned southward to 30 nT for over an hour.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 07/1910 UTC continued
into the period, and the proton flux ended the period at 55 pfu. 
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was at high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm conditions on 10-11
November.  A CME shock associated with the M8 flare observed today
should arrive on 11 November.  Activity should subside to quiet to
active levels on 12 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    75/70/65
Class X    20/20/15
Proton     99/25/15
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 141
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov  120/115/110
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  116/189
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  085/100
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  030/040-045/050-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor storm           25/35/20
Major-severe storm    20/25/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/30/45
Minor storm           30/40/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/10