:Product: 20041110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 10 2220 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity continued at high levels this period.
The very active Region 696 (N08W62) produced an X2/3b Tenflare with
protons at 10/0213Z. Strong Type II and IV radio sweeps and moderate
centimetric radio bursts also accompanied this flare. LASCO imagery
showed a very fast asymetrical full halo CME with a plane-of-sky
speed estimated at 2000 km/s. Region 696 continues to gradually
decrease in area, but maintains a significant delta configuration.
The rest of the visible disk was quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 696, though in decay, maintains potential
for major flare activity. This region will rotate around the west
limb on 13 November and as a result, solar activity levels are
expected to significantly decline.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels.
Yesterday's strong shock at 09/1852Z was followed by a short period
of strong southward Bz to near 40 nT, before rotating northward for
approximately five hours. At 10/0100Z, the solar wind exceeded 800
km/s and Bz rotated southward again, ranging from -15 to -25 nT for
over nine hours. The geomagnetic field response was severe at all
latitudes. The period ended at minor storm levels with solar wind
speed declining to near 600 km/s. A new influx of high energy
protons followed the X2 flare at 10/0213Z. A greater than 10 MeV
peak flux of 424 pfu was observed at 10/1655Z. A greater than 100
Mev proton event also occurred in association with the X2 flare. It
began on 10/0320Z, peaked at 2.1 pfu at 10/0340Z, and ended at
10/1250Z. The greater that 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to severe storm levels on 11 and 12
November. The two halo CMEs observed on 09 and 10 November are
expected to impact the geomagnetic field on 11 November. Both of
these fast CMEs had a strong westward component; however, their
combined effects may produce major or even severe storm periods. On
12 November, field conditions are expected to return to mostly
unsettled to minor storm levels, with occasional major storm periods
at high latitudes. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 13
November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress
is expected to end by 12 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    70/65/60
Class X    20/15/10
Proton     99/25/15
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 105
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  100/095/090
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  047/120
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  100/200
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  075/125-030/050-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/30
Minor storm           50/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/40/40
Minor storm           40/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/10