:Product: 20041111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 696 (N08W76) produced
isolated minor C-class activity. This region was the source of
significant flare and geomagnetic activity over the past week, but
has decayed considerably over the past 36 hours. A weak delta
configuration is still evident in this region as it approaches the
west limb. The rest of the visible disk was very quiet; however, new
Regions 700 (N04W02) and 701 (S16E70) emerged today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares are still possible from Region
696 before it rotates around the west limb on 13 November. Low solar
activity levels are expected on 14 November.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
most disturbed periods followed a prolonged period of southward Bz
between 11/03 - 07Z. Solar wind speed was elevated between 550 and
650 km/s. A 12 nT sudden impulse was observed at the geomagnetic
field at 11/1714Z. Solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements
at ACE indicate weak transient flow, likely from the CME activity on
09 - 10 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
07/1910Z remains in progress (currently ranging from 50 - 100 pfu).
The maximum so far was 495 pfu at 08/0115Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to severe storm levels. Further
transient material from the CME activity on 09 - 10 November may
produce active to major storm periods on 12 November, and isolated
severe conditions are possible at high latitudes. A return to a more
stable geomagnetic field is expected on 13 an 14 November.
Occasional active periods are expected on the 13th with
predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on the 14th. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that has been in progress since 07 November
is expected to end by 13 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    35/20/10
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     99/15/05
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 095
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  090/085/085
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  101/181
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  050/100-020/030-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor storm           50/15/05
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/40/20
Minor storm           40/20/10
Major-severe storm    40/10/01