:Product: 20041112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity dropped to very low levels. Region 696
(N08W87) is in decay and rotating quietly around the west limb. A
weak Type II radio sweep (553 km/s) followed a B7 flare in Region
699 (S14E27). A faint CME was observed off the SE limb, which was
not Earth directed. No other significant changes were noted.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
major storm periods at high latitudes. This disturbance is due to
the CME activity on 09 and 10 November. Solar wind speed ranged from
550 to over 700 km/s, but was trending down during the latter half
of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues. The
proton event began on 07/1910Z, following the X2 flare on 07/1606Z.
The peak was 495 pfu at 08/0115Z and the current flux is ranging
between 20 - 30 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 13 November. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on 14 and 15 November. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event in progress now is expected to gradually
decline to below the event threshold on 13 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    20/10/10
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     99/10/01
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 097
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  022/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  030/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  015/015-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05