:Product: 20041113RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Nov 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Activity was limited to occasional B-class activity this period. Several new spots emerged in Region 700 (N05W27), but other than occasional brightness fluctuations, the region was quiet. No other significant activity or changes were noted. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated low C-class activity is possible. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated high latitude active periods. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated, ranging from 450 to 500 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 07/1910Z is nearing an end. The current proton flux is ranging from 5 to 10 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. The greater than 2 MeV proton event in progress since 07 November is expected to end today. III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Nov 096 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 108 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 023/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-008/010-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01