:Product: 20041114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class activity
was observed in Regions 699 (S13E03) and 700 (N04W40). Region 700
continues to slowly grow in sunspot number and area. No other
significant activity or changes were observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Isolated low C-class flares are expected.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. Elevated solar wind speed (450 - 550 km/s) and a southward
period of IMF Bz between 13/2300 - 14/0300Z generated the active
periods. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on
07/1910Z, officially ended on 13/1600Z. The peak flux was 495 pfu on
08/0115Z with a secondary peak of 424 pfu on 10/1655Z. This proton
event followed X2 flares on 07 and 10 November. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 100
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  100/105/110
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  008/010-010/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01