:Product: 20041115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels today.  Region
700 (N04W53) produced two C-class flares during the period, a C1.2
that occurred at 15/0626Z and a C1.5 occurring at 15/0925Z. 
Magnetic analysis indicates that the region continues to carry a
beta-gamma classification while the sunspot area has more than
doubled since yesterday.  Regions 699 (S13W10) and 701 (S15E17)
underwent a slight growth in magnetic structure although neither of
these groups showed any appreciable change in sunspot coverage.  No
new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 700 has a slight chance of producing an isolated
M-class flare based on the magnetic structure of the region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
was slightly elevated today as the flux continues to drop to
background levels from the activity that ended on 13 November.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 106
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov  110/115/120
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  005/008-004/008-004/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01