:Product: 20041117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. 
Region 700 (N04W80) was in steady decay today as it began to rotate
off the west solar limb.  Flare production was limited to B-class
flare activity today.  Region 702 (S10W27) is a rapidly developing
magnetic beta group that was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.  An
isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between
17/0600 and 0900Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 18 and 19
November.  Isolated active conditions may occur on 20 November in
response to an anticipated coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 105
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  004/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  004/008-002/008-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05