:Product: 20041119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C4.9 flare was observed at
19/0512 UTC from Region 700, located at N04 on the West limb. 
Region 700 was responsible for several lesser C-flares during the
reporting period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed
increased from approximately 330 km/s to 400 km/s during the
reporting period.  Total magnetic field increased to approximately
18 nT, however, Bz has remained predominantly positive.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active conditions on
20 and 21 November due to the effects from a geoeffective coronal
hole stream.  Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 22 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 102
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  004/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  008/012-010/015-004/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/15
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05