:Product: 20041123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Two C-class events were
observed today.  Both of these events were visible in the GOES-12
SXI images approaching the east solar limb.  A new region was
numbered today as Region 705 (S04W64).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
An isolated M-class event is possible with the return of Region 693
(S17,L=074), 698 (S09,L=062), and 696 (N08,L=026).  These regions
are due to return to the visible disk between 23-26 November.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active periods are
possible on 25-26 November due to the influence of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 107
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov  115/120/125
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  005/008-008/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05