:Product: 20041124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  New Regions 706 (S07E69)
and 707 (S15E68) were numbered today.  These regions are likely the
return of old Region 698 (S09,L=062) and 693 (S17,L=074)
respectively.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
An isolated M-class event is possible with the emergence of the two
new regions on the southeast solar disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled conditions.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 107
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov  120/125/130
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  008/012-010/015-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05