:Product: 20041126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  A long duration B4
event was observed at 25/2321 UTC.  Analysis of image data does not
reveal the apparent optical flare associated with this event. 
Region 707 (S16E42) has grown in both white light coverage and
sunspot count and is currently a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. 
A new region was numbered today as Region 708 (N08E81), which is
likely the return of old Region 696 (N09,L=026).  This region
produced numerous events during its last rotation before exiting the
west limb on 12 November, including two X-class flares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Several regions on the disk are capable of producing
C-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Solar wind
speeds at ACE has shown a steady decline in the past 24 hours and is
currently around 420 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Nov 111
Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        26 Nov 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  019/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01