:Product: 20041128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. All four spotted regions
on the disk were quiet and stable. Region 708 (N10E56) is showing
slow growth.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (29 November - 01 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was a
period of minor storm level activity from 0600-0900 UTC due to a
substorm that appeared to be triggered by a northward turning of the
IMF after a sustained interval of weakly southward orientation.
Solar wind data show the onset of a solar sector boundary from
positive to negative orientation at about 1500 UTC. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for some isolated
active periods during the next three days (29 November - 01
December). The influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole are
expected to begin late on 01 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 113
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  010/010-010/010-012/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05