:Product: 20041129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There was one C-class flare
today, a C3/Sf at 0143 UTC from Region 707 (S14E02). There are
currently three spotted regions on the disk and they are all
essentially unchanged from yesterday.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (30 November - 2 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed,
temperature, and total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) continued
to be enhanced after yesterday's solar sector boundary crossing. The
Z-component of the IMF has been fluctuating northwards and
southwards with values typically between -7 nT to +7 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days (29
November - 2 December) due to persistence from currently enhanced
solar wind and the onset of effects from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 111
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec  110/110/115
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  016/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  016/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  015/020-015/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/15