:Product: 20041130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There were three C-class events
during the past 24 hours; A C2 at 29/2137 UTC from Region 707
(S14W12), a C4/Sf at 0658 UTC from Region 708 (N11E27), and a C1 at
1102 UTC from Region 707. Region 707 has shown only minor
development during the day but does have some weak mixing of
magnetic polarity in the trailer portion of the group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (30 November - 02 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active during
the past 24 hours. Solar wind signatures show increasing velocity
(600-650 km/s), declining density, enhanced temperature, and regular
oscillations of the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic
field, all consistent with the presence of a high speed stream
driven by a coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for tomorrow (01 December) and
partway through the 2nd day (02 December). Thereafter activity should
begin to decline, with predominantly unsettled levels for the 3rd
day (03 December).
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 111
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  020/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  015/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  015/020-015/015-012/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05