:Product: 20041202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 707 (S14W37)
produced a few small B-class flares but was otherwise quiet. Region
708 (N09E01), which produced M-class activity yesterday, was stable
today. Growth in both regions has slowed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class activity is possible in Regions 707 and 708.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The coronal hole
induced activity of the past few days is ending. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high. The
Fredericksburg A index for 01 Dec reported in Part V is estimated
from Boulder observations.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet. Activity levels may increase by 05 Dec
as another coronal hole high-speed stream rotates into position.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 106
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  008/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  005/005-005/005-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05