:Product: 20041205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A B3.1 flare occurred at
05/1710 from Region 706 (S07W74).  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 0600 UTC and 0900 UTC due to the arrival of a CME
which occurred on 03 December.  A shock was observed at ACE at
05/0656.  A sudden impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer
at 05/0747 with a deviation of 47 nT.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  An isolated active period is
possible on 06 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 096
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec  095/090/090
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  008/015-008/015-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05