:Product: 20041206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 06 2320 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Active levels were caused
by sustained periods of southward Bz.  Solar wind speed at ACE has
increased from approximately 400 km/s to 460 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 093
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05