:Product: 20041207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  No new regions
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  A period of
minor storm conditions did occur at high latitudes between 07/0300
and 0600Z and is believed to be in response to a waning coronal
hole.  Solar wind velocity has been at or near 500 km/s throughout
most of the period.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period with isolated active conditions possible on the first day
(8 Dec) as the geoeffective coronal hole rotates off the solar west
limb.  The remainder of the period should return to quiet to
unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Dec 090
Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec  090/095/095
90 Day Mean        07 Dec 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  011/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec  009/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  008/015-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01