:Product: 20041208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C2/Sf flare at  08/1959Z. This flare was associated with a 14
degree filament eruption from a sigmoid region on SXI imagery near
N01W07. A Type II radio sweep (808 km/s) also accompanied this
flare. Region 710 (S08E47) was numbered today and produced a C1
flare at 08/0414Z. No other significant activity was noted.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. An isolated C-class flare is possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. A weak high speed stream, which began on 06 December
continues to decline, ending the period near 450 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 082
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec  080/080/085
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  010/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01