:Product: 20041210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Only a few small and
simple sunspot groups populate the visible disk and no activity of
note was observed. New Region 711 (N13W20) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A CME associated
with a long duration C2 flare and filament eruption on 08 December
is expected to create occasional storm periods on 11 and 12
December. A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels is
expected on 13 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 085
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec  085/090/090
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  020/020-030/030-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/05
Major-severe storm    10/10/01