:Product: 20041211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 711 (N13W34) has
shown slight growth in both area and number of spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Active levels were due to
the effects of a CME from 8 December.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storming periods
possible on 12 December.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
on 13, 14 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Dec 090
Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        11 Dec 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  015/020-008/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05