:Product: 20041213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels.  Region 711
(N13W60) showed slight growth in sunspot area and there appears to
be a weak gamma structure in the trailing portion of the sunspot
cluster.  Multiple low level B-class flares were attributed to
Region 711, the only spotted region on the visible disk.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.  Region 711 has a slight chance of producing an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The elevated
conditions were a result of the observed full halo CME on 8
December.  This activity began tapering off early in the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 14 and 15 December. 
Active conditions may be experienced due to the anticipated return
of a weak recurrent coronal hole on 16 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 090
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec  090/090/085
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  024/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  005/008-005/005-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/30
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05